The FX Market 4th May 2021

This page will give followers daily access to free daily analysis for Forex pairs, with a focus on the gold market cap.

XAUUSD 1HR TF:

Gold is currently ranging on the daily time frame (nine days of Range). Price close for 3rd May 2021 is above the pivot point (pivot point is 1785.59, price close is at 1792.97).

Resistance 3

1837.08

Resistance 2

1817.46

Resistance 1

1805.21

Pivot Point

1785.59

Support 1

1773.34

Support 2

1753.72 Support 3 1741.47  

1 hr Time Frame:

Price is currently ranging on the one hour time frame for nine days, with price recently testing the range top at 1797 area. You will agree with me that the break of the descending trend line at the 1785 area is currently give the Bulls some impetus. Without doubt, Bullish pressure will increase by the next session for a potential break of the ceiling (1797 area). Be it as it may, the bottom of the range remains at 1756 area. As you can see on the chart, the defense by the Buyers (at 1763 zone) held with a strong force, thereby breaking all resistance on the way. General weakness of the U.S dollar is also partly the reason for XAUUSD strength in the last session. Sellers were generally caught unawares as Gold price continue to jump in the last session. A break of the current high 1797 will take price to 1805 area (Resistance 1) and later, 1817 (Resistance 2). Sellers may continue to mount pressure on 1789 zone, and below is 1785 zone where we have Pivot Point. Technically, the Range Low area (1756) is the likely main defense point for the Buyers. However, Sellers will need to break the immediate Support zone first (1789 area). It will be a source of concern to the Bulls if the Sellers push price below the Range Low area 1756. That said, Bulls have already doubled the reinforcement below the 1779 zone, ready to put in a strong support. We believe that this zone will serve as a support near term. Moreover, the Buyers are currently lining a strong Support at the closest Low (1789 zone) on the 1 hour time frame. Buyers will now try, by all means to push price above the nearest Resistance level (1797 zone). The 200 Simple Moving Average SMA is currently well below price at the 1779 area. Price jumping further above the 200 SMA is a source of concern for the Bears. Any attempt by the Bears, to drop price up close to the 200 SMA, will surely meet with strong support from the Buyers.

4 hr Time Frame:

Here, we will be taking a look at the Golden Cross. Currently on the 4 hour time frame, the Golden Cross is well in place as the 50 SMA crossed above the 200 SMA at 1729 area. Bulls took total advantage of the opportunity back then (15th April), and it is currently a leverage for the Buyers. Price is currently above the 50 SMA. The effect of the current Bullish Golden Cross is still strong. Price may see more upside movement as a result of this.

Daily Time Frame:

Market opened at 1792.51 above previous day pivot. Bears may want to take advantage of this to push price downwards by the end of the day. Technically, we currently have a Ranging market structure which is visible on the Daily chart. We have an Engulfing Bullish Candlestick Bar as the latest daily candle. This implies that price may continue it’s uptrend movement at the start of Day. Eventually, we may see a Bullish Breakout of price.

Fundamentals:

High Impact news for today is RBA RBA Interest Rate Decision data coming up in the London session at 05:30 GMT. Medium Impact news for today is U.K Markit Manufacturing PMI data coming up in the London session at 09:30 GMT. Another Medium Impact news for today is U.S Goods and Services Trade Balance coming up in the Newyork session at 13:30 GMT. Medium Impact news for today is U.S Factory Orders data coming up in the Newyork session at 15:00 GMT.

Check Out XAUUSD Previous Forecast:

The FX Market 3rd May 2021 The FX Market 30th April 2021  

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